城市造林工程农户行为意向影响因素研究——以北京市平原造林工程为例

以北京市平原造林工程为例,利用典型项目区调查数据建立结构方程模型,探讨影响退耕农户行为意向的主要因素。结果表明:农户综合素质、家庭经济基础和农户土地依赖性对农户满意度和农户行为意向具有显著正向影响;同时,农户综合素质、家庭经济基础和农户土地依赖性还会通过农户满意度对农户行为意向产生影响。据此,后续城市造林过程中应进一步加强对农户满意度的服务工作,同时根据个体农户特征,对被征地农户在再就业、技能培训、农地补偿等方面开展更具针对性的服务工作。     

Do Rating Agencies Benefit from Providing Higher Ratings? Evidence from the Consequences of Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration

We ask whether credit rating agencies receive higher fees and gain greater market share when they provide more favorable ratings. To investigate this question, we use the 2010 rating scale recalibration by Moody's and Fitch, which increased ratings absent any underlying change in issuer credit quality. Consistent with prior research, we find that the recalibration allowed the clients of Moody's and Fitch to receive better ratings and lower yields. We add to this evidence by showing that the recalibration also led to larger fees and to increases in the market shares of Moody's and Fitch. These results are consistent with critics’ concerns about the effects of the issuer‐pay model on the credit ratings market.     

家庭结构对农地流转意愿的影响——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

研究目的:分析家庭结构对农民流转土地意愿的影响,并揭示其内部机理的形成,以期为土地流转政策的完善提供参考。研究方法:因子分析法和结构方程模型。研究结果:(1)家庭人口特征、土地使用特征、户主个体特征及家庭决策特征4类外源潜变量会显著影响农地流转意愿;(2)可观测变量对外源潜变量的解释能力较强,其中,家庭总人口、实际经营及流转土地面积、户主年龄、家庭内部矛盾解决方式分别对这4类外源潜变量的解释能力相对较好,即家庭总人口越多、实际经营及流转土地面积越小、户主年龄越大、依赖于内部解决矛盾的家庭更愿意流转农地。研究结论:家庭结构主要通过主动依赖、扶养压力、收入偏好、农地保障、决策信息5种机理对流转意愿产生影响,未来土地流转政策的完善应重视解决这些问题。     

结构性减税与扩张政府支出的宏观经济效应

为了深入研究不同类型财政政策对宏观经济的影响效应，本文构建纳入异质性家庭和细化财税工具的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，并着重模拟分析了不同类型财政政策冲击对居民消费、私人投资、通胀率以及总产出水平的动态影响效应。研究结果表明，不同类型财税工具对宏观经济的冲击效果存在显著差异，对于税收政策，劳动收入税减税能够有助于提升消费水平和消费需求，并调节和完善消费结构；而对于政府支出政策，转移支付规模的扩张通过刺激家庭消费，引导消费内需有效提升，从而带动经济增长方式由投资驱动型向消费驱动型转变，进而推动经济高质量发展。     

Computing the Gerber–Shiu function by frame duality projection

Inspired by some works of Kirkby, J. L. [2015. Efficient option pricing by frame duality with the fast Fourier transform. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics 6(1), 713–747; 2016. An efficient transform method for Asian option pricing. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics 7(1), 845–892], we present a systematic study on effectively computing the Gerber–Shiu function in the Lévy risk model, where the frame duality projection is used for approximation. By introducing an auxiliary function, we provide a smooth extension of the Gerber–Shiu function, which has closed-form Fourier transform and is differentiable over the whole real line under some conditions. The objective function is approximated by its frame duality projection onto a Riesz basis, and the projection coefficients are readily computed by the fast Fourier transform algorithm. Error analysis is made and the effectiveness of our results will be further illustrated in the numerical experiments.     

Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

基于DEA模型的建筑业环境行为效率评价研究

对建筑企业进行环境行为效率评价是促进我国建筑行业健康可持续发展的重要手段。根据建筑行业特点及我国现有的企业环境信用标准,构建了建筑企业环境行为评价的投入产出指标体系,将改进的数据包络分析方法模型运用到企业环境行为效率评价领域,解决了现有企业评价研究主观性突出的问题,得出建筑企业评价分析方法。在此基础上对某代表性建筑企业2010—2017年环境行为数据进行了评价分析。分析结果表明该企业环境行为总体效率良好,但鉴于出现了奇数年和偶数年的效率波动情况,仍需提高环境行为效率。     

Hyperbolic normal stochastic volatility model

For option pricing models and heavy-tailed distributions, this study proposes a continuous-time stochastic volatility model based on an arithmetic Brownian motion: a one-parameter extension of the normal stochastic alpha-beta-rho (SABR) model. Using two generalized Bougerol's identities in the literature, the study shows that our model has a closed-form Monte Carlo simulation scheme and that the transition probability for one special case follows Johnson's distribution—a popular heavy-tailed distribution originally proposed without stochastic process. It is argued that the distribution serves as an analytically superior alternative to the normal SABR model because the two distributions are empirically similar.     

The role of corrosive internalisation and denial of responsibility in stabilising inequality in South Africa

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how capabilities inequality is stabilised through its consequences on those at both ends of the distribution. It outlines the development of the balance model, which is argued to help highlight these consequences. Specifically, how adverse environments associated with lack of access to resources and poor treatment can lead to internal consequences which further corrode capabilities. At the same time, denial of this corrosion or its importance is critical for those who benefit from the inequality. To avoid moral constraints being triggered it is important, necessary even, for them to see those who suffer as outside of their moral universe, or their suffering to be in no way associated with their advantage. Corrosion and denial work to stabilise the system. For those in the middle of the distribution, they may work to do so in combination. Appreciating these internalised consequences is key to addressing inequality in South Africa.     

Gaps in tourism education and workforce needs: attracting and educating the right people

The intense development of the tourism industry requires a skilled and qualified workforce. It is important to attract the right candidates to the tourism education, and subsequently provide relevant education to prepare students for the industry after graduation. While work placements may be useful and important to some extent, they are not the ideal solution. Hence, alternative approaches such as simulations and flipped classrooms may be applied. To provide realistic expectations, a closer collaboration between industry operators and education providers is needed. Education providers should assume a more proactive role by inviting tourism operators and integrated them in the tourism education programmes as guest lecturers.